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The Political Consequences of Labor Market Dualization

It took a while but my contribution to the symposium on dualization in PSRM is finally out in first view!

My article explores empirically how different types of labor market inequality affect policy preferences in post-industrial societies.

I argue that the two main conceptualizations of labor market vulnerability identified in the insider–outsider literature are complementary: labor market risks are shaped by both labor market status—whether an individual is unemployed, in a temporary or permanent contract—and occupational unemployment—whether an individual is in an occupation with high or low unemployment.

As a result, both status and occupation are important determinants of individual labor market policy preferences.

In this paper, I first briefly conceptualize the link between labor market divides, risks and policy preferences, and then use cross-national survey data to investigate the determinants of preferences.

Check out other papers in this symposium by Achim Kemmerling, Marius Busemeyer, Silja Hausermann, Hanna Schwander, Philip Rehm, Georg Picot, Paul Marx and David Rueda!

New paper on individual support for basic income in Europe

There is a long-standing debate in academic and policy making circles about the normative merits and economic effects of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). However, existing literature does not sufficiently address the question of the factors associated with individual support for a UBI. While a large literature in political economy has focused on individual preferences for existing welfare state benefits, it has not analysed the case of a UBI.

I seek to remedy this gap in a new journal article entitled “The Political Economy of individual level support for the basic income in Europe” forthcoming at the Journal of European Social Policy.

Using the eighth wave of the European Social Survey (ESS), I analyse individual support for a UBI in 21 European countries. The findings from logistic regression analyses with country fixed effects are partly consistent with the expectations of previous social policy and political economy literatures. Younger, low-income, left-leaning individuals and the unemployed are more likely to support a UBI. Individuals with positive views of benefit recipients, and/or high trust in political institutions are also more supportive, while anti-immigration attitudes are associated with lower support.

However, the patterns across occupations is mixed and male respondents appear slightly more supportive. Trade union membership is not statistically significant, perhaps because of contradictory effects: unions typically support new welfare state policies but they also have a key role in many existing welfare state schemes and may worry about individuals’ attachment to the labour market. At the country level, support tends to be higher where activation is more pronounced and unemployment benefits less generous.

Taken together, these results suggest one possible reason why countries with large support for a UBI have not introduced it: the mixed support among the Left means a pro-UBI coalition has to draw on right-wing voters who may support it only with lower taxes and/or extensive replacement of welfare state benefits, which in turn may further alienate parts of the Left.

For more information  you can access the PDF of the article

The Politics of Universal Basic Income

The Universal Basic Income (UBI) has a long history. The idea to provide all citizens with an unconditional and regular income cash benefit without means-test or requirement[1] has been discussed as far back as the 18th century[2].

Thinkers on the right are attracted to its simplicity, which contrasts with the current complex welfare state arrangements in most advanced economies, its minimalism and its low adverse effects on work incentives, since it is paid irrespective of labour market participation.

On the left, people emphasise its universalism and unconditionality which would reduce the gaps in coverage of current benefits and ensure labour is decommodified, thereby increasing the power of workers to bargain for better working conditions and wages.

Its detractors are similarly located across the ideological spectrum. Many liberal economists see UBI as prohibitively expensive and inefficient insofar as it directs resources to those who may not need them.

Others on the left see UBI as a dangerous legitimisation of capitalism and an implicit acceptance that not everyone will be provided a job. They also emphasise UBI’s limited ability to address all the social risks that individuals face in a market economy.

Finally, some trade unions, particularly in Bismarckian welfare regimes, oppose what they see as releasing employers of their social responsibility. Trade unions also voice concerns that this will reduce their institutional power which lies in their key role in managing the administration of social insurance benefits.

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