Jens Ulrich Eckhard in Die Welt has published an interesting piece entitled “Flucht vor Gerontonomie: Mein Bruder und zwei Freunde sind schon weg. Warum junge Leistungswillige auswandern”, in which they cite and build on my research on the political economy consequences of ageing and my concept of gerontonomia.
Continue reading “Die Welt cites my research on ageing”Category: Uncategorized
New LSE blog on why knowing who is likely to vote for a party doesn’t explain a party’s success
Together with Daphne Halikiopoulou, we have just published a new LSE blog on why knowing who is likely to vote for a party doesn’t explain a party’s success, summarising our recent article just out in the European Journal of Political Research. In the blog, we argue that improved data and methods have made it easier to understand how people’s attitudes shape their political preferences. Yet, drawing conclusions about national electoral outcomes from individual-level findings risks distorting how we interpret elections.
Continue reading “New LSE blog on why knowing who is likely to vote for a party doesn’t explain a party’s success”New article in the Citadelles on gerontocracy and my concept of gerontonomia
New article in French published in the Citadelles on gerontocracy and my concept of gerontonomia, building on my research on the political economy consequences of ageing.
Interesting piece in Green European Journal citing my research
Interesting new piece by Ben Wray in the Green European Journal discussing grey power and its consequences, discussing some of my research
HM Treasury cites my research on model uncertainty
An interesting new HM Treasury report cites our research on estimating the extent and sources of model uncertainty in Political Science, recently published by PNAS.
The Atlantic cites my research on ageing
Idrees Kahloon has just published an insightful piece on ageing in the Atlantic, entitled “A Fine Country for Old Men: Geriatric Americans are hoarding wealth and power”, in which he also cites some of my work:
“According to Tim Vlandas, an Oxford political economist, advanced democracies around the world are reaching the point of “gerontonomia”—his term for a stagnating political economy set up to prioritize elderly citizens. These citizens punish their elected governments for inflation, which lessens the value of savings and pension payments. They are much more tolerant of unemployment, because they no longer work; slow growth, because their wealth has already accumulated; and high public debt, because their descendants will pay it. The result, Vlandas argues, is lower wage growth for those still working, and also worse outcomes for their children, as a result of lower social investment over the course of their lives.”
Continue reading “The Atlantic cites my research on ageing”Volkstrant article cites my research on ageing
A recent Volkstrant article has cited my work on the political economy consequences of ageing (my own translation):
“Oxford economist Tim Vlandas calls it a “gerontonomy”: an economy in the service of the elderly. The growing electoral power of pensioners, who vote more faithfully than working people, leads to democratically chosen stagnation, Vlandas argues, because the interests of the elderly prevail over long-term investment out of political fear.”
New article on the atomistic fallacy just accepted in the European Journal of Political Research
Our new article (joint with Daphne Halikiopoulou) on the (forgotten) atomistic fallacy in Political Science and its implications for how we interpret elections was just accepted in the European Journal of Political Research.
Improvements in the availability, accuracy and processing of individual level data have allowed political science literature to address the ‘ecological fallacy’, whereby inferences are made about individuals based on units of analyses operating at a higher level.
Yet, we argue that there has been limited attention to the risk that individual-level analyses may suffer from the reverse ‘atomistic’-or ‘individualistic’-fallacy: the erroneous practice of drawing inferences about national level outcomes based on individual-level analyses.
In this research note, we present a mathematical statement and simulations to diagnose and evaluate the extent of this fallacy in the case of voting behaviour. We also illustrate the problem using European Social Survey (ESS) data on far-right voting.
We conclude by identifying three ‘perils’ of the atomistic fallacy, related to extrapolating conclusions about a party’s overall performance from information about an individual’s voting propensity. These perils can significantly affect how researchers interpret election results, and in turn, the policy implications of political science research.
My article on Aging Advanced Capitalist Democracies now out in World Politics
My article on Aging Advanced Capitalist Democracies has just been published by World Politics.
Continue reading “My article on Aging Advanced Capitalist Democracies now out in World Politics”Sina news mentions my research
Sina news, one of China’s largest and most influential online financial news and data platforms, has recently cited my research:
“Tim Vlandas, Professor of Comparative Political Economy and Social Policy at Oxford University, points out that as the proportion of older voters rises, politicians have less direct electoral incentive to pursue long-term economic growth strategies. Safeguarding the interests of retirees is seen as safer than investing in green transitions, education, or childcare. This creates a vicious cycle: declining birth rates and a growing disinterest among young people in a political arena that fails to meet their own needs. Meanwhile, pensions are becoming increasingly difficult to fund, yet are becoming more crucial for retired voters.” (google translated from Chinese)
The full source in Chinese is here: https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-05/doc-infztcen7887280.shtml
Tim Vlandas 
You must be logged in to post a comment.