New LSE blog: Even honest research results can flip – a new approach to assessing robustness in the social sciences

Reposted from LSE Blog. When academic studies get things wrong, it is often blamed on misconduct and fraud. Yet, as we argue in a recent post with Michael Ganslmeier , even good-faith research, conducted using standard methods and transparent data, can produce contradictory conclusions.

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Taking stock of Welfare State Determinants: A new approach to assessing robustness in quantitative comparative research

By Michael Ganslmeier (University of Exeter) and Tim Vlandas (University of Oxford). First posted at SPA blog

The growth of quantitative comparative social policy research

Since Wilensky’s seminal work in 1975, the comparative welfare state literature has seen hundreds of quantitative studies exploring why some countries have more generous welfare states than others. Over time, the list of proposed determinants has grown substantially: economic growth and development, partisanship and party politics, globalisation and migration, union strength and economic coordination, political institution and fiscal capacity, and public opinion; to name just a few.

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New publication on estimating the Extent and Sources of Model Uncertainty in Political Science now out in PNAS

Together with Dr Michael Ganslmeier (University of Exeter), we have co-authored a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), titled Estimating the Extent and Sources of Model Uncertainty in Political ScienceThe article addresses a fundamental challenge in empirical social science: the extent to which published findings depend on defensible but ultimately variable modelling decisions.

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How and why actual class decline leads to far-right party support

Does downward class mobility increase the likelihood of voting for far-right parties? If so, why, and through which mechanisms? How important is the group of downwardly mobile individuals for driving far-right party success? In a new article with Alexi Gugushvili and Daphne Halikiopoulou we argue that downward class mobility significantly affects far-right voting but only under specific conditions.

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