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New article on the atomistic fallacy just accepted in the European Journal of Political Research

Our new article (joint with Daphne Halikiopoulou) on the (forgotten) atomistic fallacy in Political Science and its implications for how we interpret elections was just accepted in the European Journal of Political Research.

Improvements in the availability, accuracy and processing of individual level data have allowed political science literature to address the ‘ecological fallacy’, whereby inferences are made about individuals based on units of analyses operating at a higher level.

Yet, we argue that there has been limited attention to the risk that individual-level analyses may suffer from the reverse ‘atomistic’-or ‘individualistic’-fallacy: the erroneous practice of drawing inferences about national level outcomes based on individual-level analyses.

In this research note, we present a mathematical statement and simulations to diagnose and evaluate the extent of this fallacy in the case of voting behaviour. We also illustrate the problem using European Social Survey (ESS) data on far-right voting.

We conclude by identifying three ‘perils’ of the atomistic fallacy, related to extrapolating conclusions about a party’s overall performance from information about an individual’s voting propensity. These perils can significantly affect how researchers interpret election results, and in turn, the policy implications of political science research.

Sina news mentions my research

Sina news, one of China’s largest and most influential online financial news and data platforms, has recently cited my research:

“Tim Vlandas, Professor of Comparative Political Economy and Social Policy at Oxford University, points out that as the proportion of older voters rises, politicians have less direct electoral incentive to pursue long-term economic growth strategies. Safeguarding the interests of retirees is seen as safer than investing in green transitions, education, or childcare. This creates a vicious cycle: declining birth rates and a growing disinterest among young people in a political arena that fails to meet their own needs. Meanwhile, pensions are becoming increasingly difficult to fund, yet are becoming more crucial for retired voters.” (google translated from Chinese)

The full source in Chinese is here: https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-05/doc-infztcen7887280.shtml