Reposted from LSE Blog. When academic studies get things wrong, it is often blamed on misconduct and fraud. Yet, as we argue in a recent post with Michael Ganslmeier , even good-faith research, conducted using standard methods and transparent data, can produce contradictory conclusions.
Continue reading “New LSE blog: Even honest research results can flip – a new approach to assessing robustness in the social sciences”Blog
Taking stock of Welfare State Determinants: A new approach to assessing robustness in quantitative comparative research
By Michael Ganslmeier (University of Exeter) and Tim Vlandas (University of Oxford). First posted at SPA blog
The growth of quantitative comparative social policy research
Since Wilensky’s seminal work in 1975, the comparative welfare state literature has seen hundreds of quantitative studies exploring why some countries have more generous welfare states than others. Over time, the list of proposed determinants has grown substantially: economic growth and development, partisanship and party politics, globalisation and migration, union strength and economic coordination, political institution and fiscal capacity, and public opinion; to name just a few.
Continue reading “Taking stock of Welfare State Determinants: A new approach to assessing robustness in quantitative comparative research”New publication on estimating the Extent and Sources of Model Uncertainty in Political Science now out in PNAS
Together with Dr Michael Ganslmeier (University of Exeter), we have co-authored a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), titled Estimating the Extent and Sources of Model Uncertainty in Political Science. The article addresses a fundamental challenge in empirical social science: the extent to which published findings depend on defensible but ultimately variable modelling decisions.
Continue reading “New publication on estimating the Extent and Sources of Model Uncertainty in Political Science now out in PNAS”How and why actual class decline leads to far-right party support
Does downward class mobility increase the likelihood of voting for far-right parties? If so, why, and through which mechanisms? How important is the group of downwardly mobile individuals for driving far-right party success? In a new article with Alexi Gugushvili and Daphne Halikiopoulou we argue that downward class mobility significantly affects far-right voting but only under specific conditions.
Continue reading “How and why actual class decline leads to far-right party support”Financial Times cites my research on ageing
The Financial Times has just cited my research on ageing, which has appeared in Political Quarterly, Political Research Exchange, and Nuffield College Political Science working papers. The very interesting piece, entitled “Is the rich world stuck in an ‘upper-income trap’?” lists ageing as one of the reasons for why advanced capitalist economies might be stuck in an ‘upper income trap’.
Research presentation in Rome for event organised by the S&D Group, FEPS, and the PES Group
I will be presenting the findings of my research (joint with Daphne Halikiopoulou) on 1 March 2024 at the Partito Democratico headquarters in Rome for the workshop, “Understanding right-wing populism and what to do about it.”
Continue reading “Research presentation in Rome for event organised by the S&D Group, FEPS, and the PES Group”The Economist quotes my research on ageing
My research on the political economy of ageing was cited in a great piece by The Economist on the future of the Labour Party
New article by New York Times citing my research on far right in Europe
New article by the New York Times debates the effectiveness of acceding to the right on immigration for mainstream left parties, and cites our research with Daphne Halikiopoulou.
New article on Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences accepted in Perspectives on Politics
My joint article (with Halikiopoulou) entitled “Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences: An ‘unexpected event during survey design’ in four European countries” has now been accepted in Perspectives on Politics.
Continue reading “New article on Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences accepted in Perspectives on Politics”New Political Quarterly article “From Gerontocracy to Gerontonomia”
One in five people in the EU and nearly one in ten in the world are now aged 65 and over. This demographic transformation is one of the great successes of the twentieth century and has been the focus of a large scholarship in the social sciences. Ageing has also profoundly altered the composition of electorates in many democracies. My new article for the political quarterly entitled “The Politics of Economic Stagnation in Ageing Democracies” explores whether and how this population ageing reshapes the relationship between democracy and capitalism. I argue that ageing changes the economic and policy priorities of a growing share of democracies’ electorates in ways that incentivise elected governments to prioritise certain social policies and economic outcomes, such as pensions and low inflation, at the expense of others, most notably greater social investments and pursuing economic growth. As a result, gerontocracies increasingly lead to what I call a ‘gerontonomia’ characterised by democratically sustained economic stagnation.
A summary of this article has appeared in the political quarterly blog and the LSE Europe blog. A more extensive version of this research project has been published as a Nuffield College working paper at the University of Oxford.
Tim Vlandas 
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